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The Meat Trader’s Journal #31

USDA Pork Projections, Russian Angus in China, Australia-China Beef Trade, South Korean SME Exports

The meat industry sees significant shifts in global trade, production forecasts, and export strategies, reshaping market dynamics for traders and producers alike.

🔓Market Movers & Shakers Intel

Latest Development in the European Pork Market: A Mid-2024 Update

The European pork market has seen some interesting shifts and trends recently. Here's a quick rundown of the key updates you should know:

1. Price Stability with a Mid-June Dip: After a period of stability, pork prices experienced a slight dip in mid-June. For the week ending June 16, 2024, the EU average Grade E pig price dropped to 185.8p/kg, down 2.5p/kg from the previous week.

2. Marginal Production Gains: The first quarter of 2024 saw a small increase in pork production compared to the same period in 2023. From January to March, the total EU production reached 5.42 million tonnes, a 0.3% rise (18,200 tonnes) from last year.

3. Decline in Exports: Due to limited production, exports of pig meat, including offal, have decreased. For the period from January to April 2024, exports fell by 6% compared to 2023, totaling just over 1.3 million tonnes.

4. Reduced Shipments to China: A significant factor in the decline in exports has been the reduced shipments to China. In the first four months of 2024, exports to China were 83,000 tonnes lower than the same period in 2023.

5. Slight Decrease in Imports: Imports into the EU have also seen a slight decrease. Year-to-date, imports have fallen by 1,800 tonnes compared to 2023, with a total of 46,000 tonnes imported by mid-2024.

6. African Swine Fever (ASF) Challenges: ASF continues to pose significant challenges, particularly with recent outbreaks in Germany. These outbreaks have disrupted farms, abattoirs, and butchers' shops, with new cases found near the borders with Belgium and France.

7. Stable Price Difference Between EU and UK Pork: The price difference between EU and UK pork has remained relatively stable. For the week ending June 16, 2024, it was 23.6p/kg.

The European pork market is experiencing a complex mix of stability and challenges as we progress through 2024. While prices have shown some stability with minor fluctuations, the dip in mid-June indicates potential volatility ahead. Production has seen slight gains, but this has not been enough to counterbalance the decline in exports, particularly due to reduced shipments to China. The impact of African Swine Fever continues to disrupt the market, especially in Germany, causing significant operational challenges.

Overall, while the market has shown resilience, ongoing issues such as disease outbreaks and changing trade dynamics will require close monitoring. Stakeholders in the pork industry should stay informed and be prepared to adapt to these evolving conditions.

I will send in the What’s App Group Chat, the update of Pork and Beef Imports Summary for Korean Market. Like the pictures it comes once a month.

If you are not in the group, check here.

Example:

🏆Highlighting the relevant stories from top-down
TL;DR:
→ USDA projects increased pork production
→ First Russian Black Angus arrives in Chongqing
→ Australia-China beef trade slow, US buying big
→ Further ASF outbreaks in domestic pig herds in Germany

Further ASF outbreaks in domestic pig herds in Germany

Publisher: Pig333 (26/07/2024)

African swine fever outbreaks in German domestic pig herds prompt heightened biosecurity measures and regional restrictions.

Key Points:

• Two new ASF outbreaks confirmed in Groß-Gerau district, affecting herds of 17 and 170 pigs, leading to culling.

• Authorities mandate daily health checks for all pig farms in the region and immediate reporting of disease signs.

• High viral load in Knoblochsaue and Kühkopf area predicted by EU veterinary mission, emphasizing the need for strict containment measures.

Laura's POV: These localized ASF outbreaks in Germany highlight the ongoing threat to pork production. Traders should anticipate potential supply disruptions and price volatility, while closely monitoring containment efforts and their impact on regional pork exports.

USDA projects increased pork products for 2025

Publisher: The Pig Site (26/07/2024)

The USDA's latest report forecasts a 2% increase in US pork production for 2025, signaling potential market shifts.

Key Points:

• Pork production is expected to reach 27.6 billion pounds in 2025, up from 27.1 billion in 2024.

• Hog prices are projected to decrease to $62 per hundredweight, down from $66 in 2024.

• Export forecasts remain steady at 6.8 billion pounds for both 2024 and 2025.

Laura's POV :The projected increase in pork production coupled with lower hog prices suggests a potential oversupply. Traders should prepare for increased competition and explore new market opportunities to maintain profitability.

First Russian Black Angus arrives at Chongqing International Railway Port

Publisher: iChongqing (27/07/2024)

Chongqing receives its first shipment of Russian Black Angus beef, marking a new chapter in China-Russia meat trade.

Key Points:

• The shipment includes 26 tons of frozen Black Angus beef from Russia's Bryansk region.

• This marks the first time Russian beef has entered China through Chongqing's railway port.

• The import diversifies China's beef sources and strengthens China-Russia trade relations.

Laura's POV: This development signals China's strategy to diversify beef imports. Traders should monitor this new trade route's impact on established suppliers and potential shifts in China's import preferences.

Beef trade in China Slow but United States buying big

Publisher: ABC News (27/07/2024)

Australian beef exports to China have slowed, while demand from the United States remains strong.

Key Points:

• Australian beef exports to China dropped by 46% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

• US demand for Australian beef has increased, with exports up by 6% year-on-year.

• Overall Australian beef exports are down 8% compared to the same period last year.

Laura's POV: The shift in export dynamics highlights the importance of market diversification. Traders should closely monitor US demand trends and explore strategies to re-engage the Chinese market as conditions evolve.

🗺️Trends - Discussion

👀 Cultivated Mead: A breakthrough in Pet Nutrition set to Transform the Industry

In a groundbreaking move, Further Foods Inc. is poised to revolutionize the pet food industry with its upcoming FDA approval for cultivated meat dog food, set to be finalized by September. This approval will pave the way for feeding trials of their innovative cultivated chicken-based product, part of the Noochies! range.

The Noochies! Range

Currently, the Noochies! product line offers plant-based dog food made with high-protein nutritional yeast, catering to pet owners seeking sustainable and nutritious options for their pets. The addition of cultivated meat to this lineup could significantly enhance its appeal and nutritional value.

What is Cultivated Meat?

Cultivated meat, also known as lab-grown meat, is produced by growing animal cells in a controlled environment, eliminating the need for traditional animal farming. This method not only promises to deliver high-quality, nutritionally rich meat but also addresses major environmental and ethical concerns associated with conventional meat production. While cultivated meat is not classified as vegan, it represents a major step towards more sustainable and humane food production practices.

Potential Impact on the Pet Food Industry

The successful approval and subsequent feeding trials of Further Foods' cultivated chicken-based dog food could mark a significant shift in the pet food market. This innovation holds the potential to meet the growing demand for high-quality, sustainable, and ethical pet food options, offering a new standard for pet nutrition.

The imminent FDA approval of Further Foods' cultivated meat dog food highlights a significant advancement in alternative protein sources, particularly within the pet food industry. As the demand for sustainable and ethical food products continues to rise, innovations like these could reshape the future of pet nutrition.

For more detailed information, you can read the full article on Plant Based News.

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💎Did you know?

South Korean Giants Team Up to Boost Small Food Business Globally

Major South Korean corporations like Samyang, CJ CheilJedang, and GS25 are partnering with a government-backed initiative to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the food sector. This project aims to help these smaller businesses market their innovative agri-food products internationally using the extensive global networks of these big companies.

By leveraging the established market presence and distribution channels of these large corporations, the initiative seeks to address the challenges SMEs face in foreign markets. The project covers a variety of agri-food products, including processed foods, health supplements, and traditional Korean foods, all ready to attract global consumers.

This collaboration is a strategic effort to promote shared growth within the food industry. SMEs gain access to the resources and expertise of larger companies, while the big brands benefit from diversifying their product offerings. This partnership aims to drive economic growth and strengthen South Korea's position as a leading food exporter.

The South Korean government actively supports this initiative, seeing its potential to boost the country's food export market despite global economic uncertainties. The project is expected to significantly enhance the international competitiveness of South Korean SMEs, contributing to the overall growth of the food sector.

For more detailed information and see if you can apply go to Frontier Labs.

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Stay tuned for more updates next week.

Warm regards,

Laura Valls